Among corporate sustainability and ESG professionals, the transformation to a sustainable economy is considered one of the grand opportunities of our lifetime. BCG analysis has found that by 2030, “between $13 and $14 trillion in value will be created due to climate transition, with trillions likely to be destroyed from businesses that fail to decarbonize quickly enough and from assets that become stranded.” The World Business Council for Sustainable Development proclaims, “Sustainability is the biggest economic opportunity of our times.”
Unfortunately, that message may not resonate outside of the professional field of sustainability. Now more than ever, we need to be attuned to public sentiment, not just market sentiment.
Understanding the opportunity in this massive economic transformation is essential to motivate investment and action among investors and business leaders. But as the powerful political backlash against ESG reminds us, public support and sentiment is going to govern how far the transition goes and how fast it proceeds. And public polling data reveal a sobering picture for sustainability leaders who believe that either averting climate disaster or the business case for sustainability will motivate the public (i.e. voters) to support the transition to a sustainable economy.
A Pew survey in 2023 found that inflation is the largest concern among US adults. An overwhelming 65% of respondents (77% of Republicans and 52% of Democrats) said inflation was “a very big problem.” By contrast, only 39% of respondents said the same of climate change. Worse for sustainability leaders, climate change is deeply polarizing in US politics. While 64% of Democrats viewed climate change as “a very big problem” in the country, only 14% of Republicans did. That 50-point spread was even larger than the partisan gaps found on illegal immigration, gun violence and racism.
These findings suggest that in order to meet ambitious long-term sustainability goals, sustainability leaders need to be seen as partners in solving the more acute challenges facing a public whose primary concerns lie elsewhere.
Fortunately, evidence is readily at hand that the goals of sustainability and fighting inflation are compatible. A new study provides rigorous findings that climate change significantly boosts inflation. And many of the links between climate change and inflation are intuitive and don’t require scholarly articles. If it’s harder to grow a crop, it’ll be more expensive at the store. Global banana producers recently warned that climate change will make bananas more expensive. In the US, Georgia lost 90% of its peach crop in 2023 thanks to highly abnormal climate conditions: a February heat wave and two late Spring frosts. Cocoa is now more expensive than copper, in no small part due to extended drought and hotter temperatures in West Africa. Lumber is more expensive because hotter, drier temperatures in Canada fueled massive forest fires and an historic infestation of beetles (pests that are thriving due to warmer winters) devastated the forests that provide most of the lumber sold in the US. The list goes on.
Some commentators thought it funny that the most ambitious climate-change legislation in US history was called The Inflation Reduction Act. But more than funny, it was wise. The act needed to speak to the concerns and needs of supporters’ constituents. Climate change may be far from their top priority, but keeping costs like energy lower? That’s something everyone can get behind.
It would be condescending and counter-productive to try to convince the public that their priorities are wrong. Instead, sustainability leaders should make an effort to meet the public where they are and to highlight their role as allies addressing people’s top concerns.
Right now, you’ll win more support addressing inflation than you will addressing climate change. The good news is that we can do both, if we choose to and if we choose to talk about it.
This blog post was originally published on LinkedIn. Follow Miguel Padró for more insights on business and society.